"An American Interest Book."
The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
Cases: looking back
Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
Cases: looking ahead
The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian
Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
Forecasting
Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop
What could be
Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
American scenarios
A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama
Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
Contributors
Index.
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Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics. ISBN 9780815729907. Published by Brookings Institution in 2007. Publication and catalogue information, links to buy online and reader comments.
